Wrap Text
Town On Tuesday, 30 April 2002
ANGLOGOLD LIMITED
THE 58TH ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING OF MEMBERS
HELD IN CAPE TOWN ON TUESDAY, 30 APRIL 2002.
PRESENTATION BY MR BOBBY GODSELL, CHAIRMAN AND CEO,
I turn now to the year ended 31 December 2001. AngloGold's headline
earnings (before unrealised non-hedge activities) increased by 13% to $286
million. Gold production declined by 4%, largely as a result of the sale
of the Elandsrand and Deelkraal mines. Improvements in cost control and
productivity and the devaluation of the rand led to a 16% improvement in
total cash costs from $213 per ounce to $178 per ounce, lifting operating
profit by 12% to $522 million.
AngloGold declared a final dividend for the half-year of R11,00 per share,
giving a total dividend for the year of R18,00. The total dividend
represents a dividend yield of 4.3%, calculated on a share price of R422
per share, the closing price on the JSE on 31 December 2001. A dividend
at this level is consistent with AngloGold's established practice of
paying most of the company's earnings back to shareholders, after allowing
for organic growth.
It would be remiss of me in talking to you today without making some
comment on our results for the first quarter of 2002, which we released
this morning.
Two things are striking about this quarter and AngloGold's performance:
The first is that the average spot dollar gold price for this quarter of
$290/oz is the highest that we have seen for the past 8 quarters, in other
words, since December 1999. Several factors - a growing interest in the
metal as an investment in Japan and other developed economies, the
cumulative cuts in the US interest rates during the past year and the
escalated, and as yet unresolved, conflict in the Middle East, as well as
widespread forecasts of declining new mine supply in the longer term -
combine to give us a degree of confidence that the current price level has
the potential to be sustained. In the context of the firmer price, we have
continued to actively manage our hedge book and increase exposure to the
spot price. In this quarter we have reduced the book by a further 1.7
million ounces (or 120% of this quarter's production), and we have also
eliminated the low-price rand gold forward contracts in the book for the
remainder of this year. Thus whereas at December 31, 2001 we had 60% of
our forecast 2002 gold production sold forward, today we have only 32% of
the remainder of this year's anticipated production sold forward, with
none of these contracts rand denominated. Put another way, around 3
million ounces of AngloGold's production for the rest of this year is
exposed to a rising price this year at margins considerably higher than
those of most unhedged producers.
One consequence of the restructuring of our hedge during this quarter is
that, for the first time in a long time, our received price is slightly
below the average spot price for the quarter, even though it is in keeping
with our objective to always achieve a received price close to the spot
price in a rising gold market. This is the price we have been prepared to
pay in this quarter for adjusting the risk profile of our hedge book -
while we have taken limited short-term earnings pain, we are far better
positioned for a continuing rise in the gold price.
The second feature of the quarter for AngloGold was its record cash
operating margin of 47% or $136/oz, up 13% from the December quarter. Our
operating profit from our current assets (that is, excluding the Free
State operations), including realised gains from non-hedge derivatives,
increased by 7.3 % to $147 million (or R1.7 billion) and our cash costs
for these assets came down 2% to $151/oz.While AngloGold's production
reduced, compared to the last quarter of 2001, by some 340,000 ounces (of
which some 300,000 are attributable to the sale of our high cost, short
life assets in the Free State), to 1.4 million ounces, we are reporting
headline earnings (before unrealised non-hedge derivatives) of $89 million
(up 1% in dollar terms and 11% in rand terms to R1.03 billion). In
comparison to the first quarter of 2001, earnings have increased by 60% in
dollar terms and 134% in local currency.
The additional 3.2 million AngloGold ordinary shares in issue following
our Normandy bid, have the effect of reducing our headline earnings per
share (before unrealised non-hedge derivatives) by a modest 1% down to 81
US cents per share (and of raising $158 million worth of capital).
Comparing this to the first quarter of 2001, headline earnings per share
have improved by 56% in dollar terms.
Returns on equity and capital employed are 23% and 16% respectively, a
competitive performance and in line with last quarter and with our own
targets.
The current strong gold price and good performance by gold equities
worldwide (but particularly here on the JSE) has resurrected, with renewed
vigour, the debate about hedging. Our position at AngloGold continues to
be informed by our resolve to manage our revenue risk in order to ensure
that we are not at the mercy of the gold price, while at the same time
ensuring that we are reasonably leveraged to a rising price. Over the
past ten years, of which the last six have seen a largely declining price,
this company's carefully managed forward sales programme has added some
$1.2 billion to our bottom line. In a changing price environment, the
structure of our book is being judiciously risk-adjusted to reflect the
new reality.
Looking ahead, the objective of the Board and Management of AngloGold
remains to increase shareholders' wealth. We will do this by continuing
to grow earnings and the company's share price and by returning surplus
cash to shareholders in the form of a bi-annual dividend. To this end we
are focussed on growing shareholder value in six ways.
First, we will continue to drive this company down the cost curve.
AngloGold's cash cost of production has reduced from $250 per ounce in the
March quarter of 1998 to $151 for the March quarter 2002. Through a
combination of changes to the asset base, productivity improvements and
capitalising on the benefits of currency movements, we will continue to
reduce costs and improve our operating margin. We are 80% complete with
our literacy programme and about 50% complete with our multi-skilled
production team programme. Both programmes will ensure that all
production workers have the ability to perform a range of tasks
appropriate to a modern mining workplace. We are well advanced with
testing incremental new production technologies. All of these will
contribute to lower costs and better margins, thereby growing earnings.
Secondly, we will continue to grow this company organically, that is to
say, by using internal resources. Dave Hodgson will shortly be describing
to you the company's five major development projects presently underway.
These will contribute some 17 million low cost ounces over the life of
these projects.
Thirdly, we will expand the company's resource base through brownfields
(or near mine) exploration. Over the last two years we have generated
some 5 million new reserve ounces from brownfields exploration at a
discovery cost of below $10 an ounce, thereby growing our existing
operations.
Fourth, from our now highly focussed greenfields exploration activities,
we are targeting some 13 million new production ounces between now and
2020, at a discovery cost of below $30 an ounce.
The fifth leg of our strategy focuses on our acquisition strategy. Since
the creation of AngloGold in its present form in early 1998, the company
has acquired assets which last year produced 2.3 million low cost ounces,
and contributed 37% of the company's operating profit and 49% of its
EBITDA. We will continue to pursue acquisitions of both ore bodies and
companies, where these acquisitions add value to AngloGold.
Sixth, and finally, AngloGold will continue with its strategy of seeking
value down the gold value chain. As important as value adding
consolidation is in the mining of gold, so too is consolidation downstream
of the mine smelthouse gate. The gold jewellery industry, from refining
through to retail, is fragmented, under- capitalised and, in many areas,
inefficient. AngloGold has made two modest investments downstream from
which we have learnt a great deal about bullion trading, manufacturing and
retail. We will continue to examine investment opportunities of scale,
where these present a compelling commercial case.
In summary, 2001 was a good year for your company, characterised as it was
by sound operating performance, reinforced with new, low-cost production
from East and West Africa and supported by the disposal of shorter-life,
lower margin assets in South Africa. For the rest of 2002, we are
expecting another good year, with gold production of 5.8 million ounces
for the year, a world-beating cash operating cost of $154 per ounce and
capital expenditure of some $270 million.
PRESENTATION BY MR KELVIN WILLIAMS, MARKETING DIRECTOR
Good morning and welcome to this Annual General Meeting. As Bobby has
indicated, I shall talk a little about the gold and currency markets as we
see them today and about our own positions in the market today and going
forward.
The statistics of the market are broadly known to all of us here. Perhaps
the most critical two elements of those statistics are the average spot
price of gold, and the state of the US$ against major currencies and
against major producer currencies. In regard to both of these, the
movements are strong and favourable. The average spot price of gold of
almost $290 per ounce for the quarter was the highest price in over two
years. The average price for the year to date looks likely to beat the
sub-$280 price averages of the past three years. Likewise, the dollar
showed the first meaningful signs of weakening during this past quarter
after extended period of strength under which gold has suffered as much as
have major and minor non-US currencies.
The circumstances supporting these price moves in the gold market today
are particularly encouraging. Importantly, we are all the more encouraged
that the favourable circumstances are actually being reflected in the spot
gold price and in heightened interest in our market.
This appears self-evident, but there have been occasions in past years
where favourable circumstances have arisen, but not been reflected in the
kind of interest in gold that we would have hoped for, as other
circumstances acted to dampen or neutralize the opportunity for gold.
Today, the conjunction of circumstances are largely or predominantly
favourable, and we feel very positive about our market.
Bobby has dealt very briefly with a few of the circumstances that are
positive for the market today and I would like to touch on certain of
these circumstances in a little more detail.
The major secular elements in favour of the gold market lie in the areas
of
* US interest rate policy
* changes to gold producer hedging policies
* in the likely future pattern of gold supply from the mining
sector, and
* official sector behaviour towards gold
all of this underpinned by the weakening of the US Dollar.
The factor of US interest rate movement is central to many other
circumstances in the gold market. The decline in US interest rate levels
has impacted on investor and speculator approaches to gold, on gold
producer hedging decisions and on official sector attitudes towards gold.
So too in the medium term will the current low interest rates impact on
the strength of the US currency.
Low US rates have flattened forward prices in the derivative markets for
gold and eliminated both the temptations for speculators to short the
metal, and much of the margin incentive which has encouraged gold
producers in the past to fix prices for future production. The low US
interest rates prevailing at the moment also reduce the competitive
disadvantage of gold as a non-interest-bearing currency in the category of
reserves, and assists the arguments for gold as a portfolio diversifier
with unique characteristics.
And last but not least, the precipitous fall in US interest rates over the
past fifteen months may finally reverse the dominance and strength of the
US currency, and we have seen signs in the past quarter of a fall in the
value of the dollar against other major currencies, as well as weakening
against both the Rand and the Australian dollar. Given the historic
evidence of the tendency of gold to trade counter cyclically to the US
dollar, and the most recent evidence of gold's weakness during a period of
a strong dollar, the recent decline in the value of the dollar gives
considerable cause for optimism about further recovery in the spot price
of gold.
Regarding other major influences, there is cause for encouragement on the
supply side from both new mine production, and official sales. In respect
of the official sector, the Washington Agreement has introduced a
sufficient measure of certainty into the sale and lending of gold by the
official sector such that we believe official sales have ceased to act as
a cap on the gold price, or to be used to encourage speculative short
selling of gold in anticipation of further unannounced official selling.
The Washington Agreement is almost certain to be renewed on terms at least
similar to the conditions contained in the first agreement of September
1999 and official sales will remain a predicatable and non-disruptive part
of our market.
Producer supplies of newly-mined gold are also forecast to decline in
years ahead, and the expectation of reduction in supplies from this source
has been good for sentiment towards gold in today's market.
In addition to major market influences referred to above, there are also
incidental circumstances which have lent support to gold in recent months.
The weakness of the banking sector in Japan, and the coincidental
withdrawal by the Japanese Government of guarantees for certain classes of
deposit accounts at Japanese banks has seen a significant move by Japanese
savers and investors during the past quarter out of cash and into gold,
sufficient to see offtake in Japan during the first quarter of 2002 rise
to over 45 tons of gold by comparison with offtake of some 10 tons of
metal in the first quarter of 2001.
Global political circumstances, and the conflict in the Middle East have
also contributed to an investment climate which looks for greater security
and less risk, and this specifically has led to renewed interest in gold
on the New York Comex futures market. Unrest in the Middle East has also
pushed oil prices higher and this too has been seen as an economic
indicator in favour of a higher gold price.
In today's market, therefore, we see a number of circumstances favourable
to the metal. Unlike price rallies in recent years, which have tended to
have been driven by single incidents or issues, the current health of the
gold market is supported by a number of elements, some of which might be
short-lived, but others of which are likely to endure for some while.
One element of our market which does give some cause for concern is the
area of physical demand for the metal. Although demand for gold for
jewellery offtake has remained just positive in the USA, elsewhere we have
seen falling demand for the metal. Of greatest concern has been the fall
in offtake in each of the past three quarters in India, the world's
largest gold market. A rising or volatile gold price is always an
important factor in dampening offtake in markets such as India, and demand
usually returns once the spot price of gold becomes stable. In the
current circumstances in which many producers are delivering newly-mined
gold into existing forward contracts, the flow of gold onto the spot
market is reduced and this has to a degree balanced the lower physical
demand for the moment. Nevertheless, this slippage in physical demand is
of concern and gold producers should be ready to apply resources to
important markets to encourage demand where necessary.
The positive state of the gold market has in turn coloured our view on
current management of our open hedge position, and you will note from both
the summary and the detailed reports of the open hedge that we have
eliminated a further 52 tons or some 1,7 million ounces of forward price
cover from the hedges during the past three months, including all
outstanding Rand gold forward contracts for the balance of 2002.
The primary objective of AngloGold's hedging policy during the past decade
has been to manage forward pricing of production in order to achieve
revenue certainty in difficult times in the gold market. We are a company
that has set clear financial goals in place, not least of those being the
payment of proper returns to our shareholders, and hedging has been a
valuable instrument in adding price value to the company over the past
decade.
Current circumstances we believe reduce the need for earlier levels of
certainty. These changed circumstances embrace both the more favourable
gold market and the fact that the company has progressively changed its
mix of mining assets over the past three years to the position that we
enjoy today of having the lowest cash costs of all major gold mining
companies worldwide, and equally competitive total costs. Our strength
today as a low cost producer provides us with a profit margin more able to
sustain our financial targets than have been the case in previous years.
Going forward, the company will continue to deliver against or otherwise
close maturing forward pricing contracts and to address particular
attention to those parts of the open hedge book which have been overtaken
by moves in the underlying market - specifically rand-denominated hedges.
In managing the hedge we have put in place new option positions which have
been priced at the forward line off today's higher spot price; these new
positions are still subject to the overall objective of progressively
reducing the nett total tonnage sold forward by the company.
PRESENTATION BY MR DAVE HODGSON : CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER
Good morning/afternoon. During this presentation I intend to talk about
the operational performance of AngloGold during 2001 and then will touch
briefly on the quarterly performance and the future of our mining and
exploration activities.
Since its formation in early 1998, the management team of AngloGold has
pursued a strategy to grow the profit margin per ounce of gold mined,
while seeking to diversify country and mining risk, in the pursuit of a
lower cost of capital and a higher market valuation. This has been
achieved while reducing production of some 4.2 million ounces of gold,
through the sale or closure of some 30 shafts in South Africa and
acquiring some 2 million new low-cost annual production ounces from open-
pit and shallow underground operations situated elsewhere in East and West
Africa, Australia and North and South America.
Reviewing AngloGold's operational performance for the year ended 31
December, 2001, gold production declined by 4%, largely as a result of the
sale of the Elandsrand and Deelkraal mines. Improvements in cost control
and productivity and the devaluation of the rand led to a 16% improvement
in total cash costs from $213 per ounce to $178 per ounce, lifting
operating profit by 12% to $522 million.
For the South African Operations, the year 2001 began with the sale of the
Elandsrand and Deelkraal operations. Despite this, the region recorded a
39% increase in operating profit to R2.9 billion (up 9% in dollar terms to
$331 million). Gold produced dropped by 748,000 ounces to 4.7 million
ounces (14%) all of which is attributable to the closure or selling of
operations. Despite the 14% reduction in gold produced and inflation of
around 7%, total cash costs for the year decreased in dollar terms from
$217 per ounce to $184 per ounce and rose marginally in rand terms from
R48,395 per kilogram to R50,065 per kilogram.
In East and West Africa our operations performed very well with a total of
868,000 attributable ounces, including production from Yatela for the
first time and Morila and Geita for its first full year. Total cash costs
for the year were $129 per ounce. Operating profit for the year improved
by 93% or $45 million to $87 million.
Operating profit for the North American operations for the 2001-year, of
$16 million is 16% lower than in 2000 with total cash costs increasing by
6% to $211 per ounce.
Despite good performances by all three operations in South America during
2001, operating profit for the year was 9% down on 2000 at $63 million.
Higher ounces sold offset a lower realised price, while total cash costs
were 7% lower at $134 per ounce. Gold production for 2001 was the same as
2000 at 441,000 ounces with silver production 35% higher at Cerro
Vanguardia.
In Australia, production during 2001 was 508,000 ounces, 3% lower than in
2000. Record production from Sunrise Dam could not fully offset the
losses resulting from the closure of the Brocks Creek mine in 2000, and
the Tanami mine during 2001. In addition, Boddington ceased operations
during the fourth quarter. The future of the mine is pending, awaiting a
decision by the partners as to its future.
During the first quarter of 2002, AngloGold's operations performed well
despite the traditionally "slow start" due to the Christmas break.
Operating profit (including realised non-hedge derivative gains) from
current operations (excluding Free State assets) increases by 7.3% to
$147m (R1.7billion)- representing a cash operating profit of $197m (R2.3
billion). Cash Costs on current operations are down 2% to $151/oz and the
region achieved a record cash-operating margin of 47% - at $136/oz, it is
up 13% on the previous quarter.
Gold production was affected by the Christmas break and continued
inventory build-up at CC&V.
Headline earnings - before unrealised non-hedge derivatives- increased by
$1 million to $89 million. On a cents-per-share basis, our Headline
earnings - before unrealised non-hedge derivatives - were down 1 US cent
to 81 US cents per share. This arose from the additional 3.2 million
shares issued as a result of the AngloGold bid for Normandy.
NOTE - breakdown is (from 1 Jan, 2002)
Normandy offer - swap shares 3,201,599
Normandy offer - top up facility 63,578
I would like to discuss those of these six objectives:
- Driving the company down the cost curve
- Through Organic growth
- Through brownfields exploration
- Greenfields exploration
- Acqusitions
Seeking value down the gold value chain that Bobby has referred to over
which my operating colleagues and I have within our control.
Since its formation AngloGold has reduced the cash cost of production from
$250 per ounce in the March quarter of 1998 to $151/oz for the March
quarter 2002, through a combination of changes to the asset base and
productivity improvements, with assistance from currency movements.
Our total production costs are today the lowest of the major gold
producers; coming in as they did for the March quarter, 2002 at $188/oz.
The success of our cost management program is most apparent in South
Africa where cumulative total cash costs have been consistently held well
below the cumulative consumer price index since 1998 - believing that
workers who are better rewarded and trained can also be more productive.
A good example of this success is the case of the Great Noligwa mine near
Orkney which, in the December quarter produced some 242,000 oz of gold at
a total cash cost of only $97/oz, dealing effectively with the myth that
South African deep level mines are, by definition, the costliest to run.
Further improvements in the area of productivity continue to center on our
South African assets. In this regard, the company is 80% complete with
our literacy programme (aimed at ensuring that all production workers have
the ability to perform the tasks required to boost productivity), and
about 50% complete with our multi-skilled production team programme. We
are well advanced with testing new production technologies, such as the
electric rock drill, illustrated in this picture, which we believe could
contribute to improved drilling and blasting efficiencies and a better
21st century environment. All of these efforts we believe will continue
to contribute to lower costs and better margins. Thus even though we are
not today the world's largest gold producer, we have a far more
competitive cost structure than we did a year ago.
Turning to our objective of growing the company through organic growth, we
presently have five major capital expansion projects underway which,
together, will add some 15 million ounces to our production profile over
the life of the assets. All five projects are within our forecast annual
capex outlook of approximately $270 million this year, $246 million in
2003, and $232 million in 2004.
At Sunrise Dam in Australia the expansion will increase production by
approximately 2.1 million ounces and the life of mine by four years to
2008. Following capital expenditure of A$97 million the expansion is
effectively complete. Beyond this initial Megapit expansion project,
drilling results indicate significant potential upside, which I will touch
on in a moment.
The Mponeng in South Africa deepening project will extend the life of the
operation by five years to 2012. The total cost of the deepening is R1.3
billion or $120 million, with half of this already spent. The project is
expected to add three million ounces to production over the life of the
mine, resulting in a total cash cost for the mine of $156 per ounce.
At TauTona in South Africa, the project will extend the operation's life
by at least another four years to 2011. Requiring capital expenditure of
R462 million or some $40 million it will add 2.3 million ounces of gold
production over the life of the operation resulting in a total cash cost
for the mine of $133 per ounce.
The CC&V expansion in Colorado will extend the life of this mine by four
years to 2013 and will produce 2.8 million ounces of additional gold,
resulting in a totalcash cost for the mine of $174 per ounce. Capital
expenditure is expected to total $195 million, of which approximately $70
million has been spent to date.
The new Moab Khotsong mine in South Africa is due to commence operating in
October 2003, reaching full production in 2006. With capital expenditure
of R3.8 billion or $330 million, of which two-thirds has been spent to
date, the mine is expected to produce 4.5 million ounces of gold through
to 2015 at a total cash cost of $97 per ounce.
In addition to these capital projects already underway, AngloGold is
giving consideration to a further two possible expansion projects, neither
of which has yet been submitted to the AngloGold board for approval.
In Brazil, the anticipated Cuiaba deepening project has the potential to
increase the amount of gold produced by some 150,000 ounces per year. The
project has an ore reserve of around 2.2 million ounces and is likely to
require capital expenditure of $140 million.
In Western Australia, Boddington's oxide mining operation came to an end
during the December quarter, pending a decision on the expansion project.
Back in late 2000, a feasibility study was completed for the expansion of
the operation, which proved up a reserve of 390 million tonnes at
0.87 grams per tonne, containing some 11 million ounces of gold.
AngloGold's attributable share of this would be one third. A decision on
the project is expected during this year.
AngloGold's global exploration strategy seeks both to extend the life of
existing operations and to establish new mines capable of providing double
digit returns on investment. In the past two years, we have generated 5
million new reserve ounces from brownfields exploration at a discovery
cost below US$9/oz.
A highly-focused greenfields exploration programme is targeting the
discovery of 13 million new production ounces between now and 2015 at a
discovery cost below US$30/oz. In 2002 US$50 million has been budgeted for
global exploration.
Current exploration is returning encouraging results at a number of sites:
- At Sadiola, in Western Mali, additional satellite oxide resources
have been delineated.
- At Morila, in Southern Mali, geophysical surveys and follow-up
drilling have produced a number of new targets for drill-testing
in 2002.
- Drilling at Geita Hill in Tanzania has shown promising results
with the focus for 2002 on Nyankanga pit extensions.
- In Western Australia, high grade mineralization intersected
beneath the Sunrise Dam megapit shell indicates potential to
double existing resources and further extend the mine life.
- The Coyote advanced greenfields exploration project in Tanami
desert in Western Australia has defined several high grade
structures and resource estimation is in progress.
- Geophysics has defined several new targets in the Crixas
greenstone belt in Brazil where down-plunge mineralization has
been confirmed at Mina Nova and Miina Tres.
- At Corrego do Sitio, in Brazil's Iron Quadrangle, underground
targets will be drill-tested in 2002.
At Cerro Vanguardia, in southern Argentina, we believe that the narrow,
high-grade veins continue at depth.