Wheat firm on technical bounce, tightening global supplies

* Australian government lowers 2018/19 wheat crop forecast
* Soy firm, corn flat ahead of monthly USDA reports
* USDA delays its weekly Crop Progress report to Tuesday

(Updates with closing U.S. prices, USDA crop progress delay)
By Julie Ingwersen
CHICAGO, Sept 10 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat futures rose more
than 3 percent on Monday on a mix of technical buying after last
week's seven-week low and fundamental support from tightening
supplies in Australia and Russia, analysts said.
Soybean futures also advanced while corn futures were little
changed ahead of key monthly crop reports due Wednesday from the
U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Chicago Board of Trade December wheat futures settled
up 17 cents at $5.28-1/4 per bushel. November soybeans
ended up 1-1/4 cents at $8.45-1/4 a bushel and December corn
rose 1/4 cent at $3.67-1/4 a bushel.
CBOT wheat bounced after a four-session slide last week
pressed the December contract to $5.07-1/2, its lowest
since July 19.
"After wheat made pretty good lows last week, some (of
Monday's support) is a technical rebound," said Terry Reilly,
analyst with Futures International in Chicago.
Additional strength stemmed from news that the Australian
Bureau of Agriculture, Resource Economics and Rural Sciences
(ABARES) lowered its forecast for the country's 2018/19 wheat
crop to 19.1 million tonnes, from 21.9 million in June. The
figure is below the USDA's latest Australian wheat forecast of
19.5 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, dry conditions in Russia's southwestern Volga
Valley could threaten the germination of the 2019/20 winter
wheat crop, Radiant Solutions said in a daily note.
"Timely rains are needed," Reilly said.
News of a barley purchase by Saudi Arabia, which booked 1.5
million tonnes in a tender, may suggest that the importer
expects rising prices and tightening grain supplies, traders
said.
Russia's deputy prime minister in charge of agriculture said
the Russian 2018/19 grain crop would allow exports of 30 million
tonnes, a figure some traders have cited as a potential ceiling
after which export curbs could be imposed.
However, U.S. wheat exports have been moderate so far.

"U.S. wheat exports are still struggling. We are not seeing
higher demand for U.S. wheat," said Phin Ziebell, an
agribusiness economist with National Australia Bank.
CBOT soybean futures firmed despite softening cash values at
the U.S. Gulf and expectations that the USDA will raise
its estimate of the U.S. crop in a monthly report due Wednesday.

Some analysts cited a jump in soybean futures on China's
Dalian Commodity Exchange after cold weather in the country's
northeast raised concerns about damage to crops.
China imported 9.15 million tonnes of soybeans in August, up
14 percent from July, customs data showed on Saturday.

CBOT corn futures were little changed and the December
contract stayed inside of Friday's trading range as the market
awaited updated yield and production estimates from USDA on
Wednesday.
After the CBOT close, the USDA said it delayed the release
of its weekly U.S. Crop Progress report until Tuesday from
Monday afternoon due to technical issues.

CBOT settlement prices:
Net Pct Volume
Last change change
CBOT wheat WZ8 528.25 17.00 3.3 63963
CBOT corn CZ8 367.25 0.25 0.1 110797
CBOT soybeans SX8 845.25 1.25 0.1 74136
CBOT soymeal SMZ8 318.60 1.60 0.5 49341
CBOT soyoil BOZ8 28.36 0.09 0.3 51286
NOTE: CBOT December wheat and corn and November soybeans
shown in cents per bushel, December soymeal in dollars per short
ton and December soyoil in cents per lb.

(Reporting by Julie Ingwersen;
Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral
in Singapore
Editing by Lisa Shumaker and James Dalgleish)


First Published: 2018-09-10 03:16:06
Updated 2018-09-10 23:15:19


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