* LME/ShFE arb: http://bit.ly/2wZSAEz
* LME tin stocks down 67 percent since Feb last year
* Traders watching large holding of LME tin warrants
(Adds closing prices)
By Pratima Desai
LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Tin prices rose towards recent
one-year peaks on Tuesday, boosted by worries about tighter
supplies after data showed falling exports from Indonesia and a
weaker dollar, which lifted all base metals on the London Metal
Benchmark tin on the London Metal Exchange closed up
1.9 percent at $21,500 a tonne. Earlier, prices of the
semiconductor metal touched a session high at $21,475 and late
last month they touched $22,000, the highest since Feb. 2017.
"There's a shortfall in supplies from Indonesia and in the
longer term there are concerns about replacement sources of
tin," said Christoph Eibl, chief executive of Tiberius Asset
Management, adding that the weaker dollar was a positive.
INDONESIA: The top producer's refined tin exports were 4,507
tonnes in January, down 36 percent from the previous month and
35 percent lower than the same month a year earlier.
CHINA: The world's largest tin consumer is China, accounting
for nearly half of global demand estimated at around 380,000
tonnes this year.
STOCKS: Nervousness about shortages has been fuelled by
falling inventories in LME-approved warehouses, which at 1,935
tonnes have crashed 67 percent since February last year, and
cancelled warrants -- metal already earmarked for delivery -- at
nearly 35 percent. <MSNSTX-TOTAL>
LARGE POSITION: Traders are also keeping a close eye on a
large position holding between 50 and 79 percent of tin
SPREADS: Worries about nearby supplies on the LME market can
be seen in the premium for the cash contract <CMSN0-3> over the
three-month forward around $90 a tonne. The premium has been a
feature since April last year.
FUNDS: Money managers' net long position at 1,384 lots or
6,920 tonnes has risen nearly 70 percent over the last month.
TECHNICALS: Upside resistance for LME tin is at $22,000 and
strong support is around the 100-day moving average currently
DOLLAR: A lower U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated
commodities cheaper for non-U.S. firms, which could help demand.
COPPER: Copper climbed 2.3 percent to $6,987 a
tonne. Late last year it hit a four-year high above $7,300 a
DEMAND: "From a ‘top-down’ perspective we expect the Chinese
and global demand will remain solid and we find that industrial
metals outperform during periods of demand-led inflation," Citi
analysts said in a note.
"From a bottom up perspective, copper and zinc are best
placed to tighten and outperform as we head out of Chinese New
Year and in to a strong seasonal period for metals demand."
PRICES: Zinc ended up 2.6 percent at $3,469 a tonne,
lead rose 1.8 percent to $2,561, nickel added
2.7 percent to $13,450 and aluminium gained 0.7 percent
to $2,139 a tonne.
(Editing by Matthew Mpoke Bigg and Susan Fenton)
First Published: 2018-02-13 04:38:14
Updated 2018-02-13 19:16:45
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