Singapore Q3 GDP growth seen losing momentum, trade war dims outlook
* Singapore final Q3 GDP likely +4.2 pct q/q, +2.4 pct y/y
* Thursday, Nov. 22 at 0000 GMT (8 am local time)
* For poll data click: reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=SGGDPQ%3DECI
* For poll data click: reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=SGGDQY%3DECI
By Fathin Ungku
SINGAPORE, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Singapore is expected to
report slower third-quarter economic growth than initially
thought, a Reuters poll showed, as the manufacturing sector
faces strains from weaker global demand and an intensifying
trade dispute between the United States and China.
The government's finalised gross domestic product (GDP) was
forecast to rise 4.2 percent in July-September from the quarter
earlier on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis, the poll
of 11 economists showed, below the 4.7 percent rise seen in the
advanced estimate but still much stronger that the 1.2 percent
growth clocked in the second quarter.
"Final third quarter GDP is expected to be revised
downwards, given the slower than expected manufacturing numbers
and monthly indicators for the services sectors such as bank
loans and property sales showing weaker numbers," said Maybank
Kim Eng Securities economist Lee Ju Ye.
On a year-on-year basis, third quarter GDP growth was
forecast at 2.4 percent, slightly below the 2.6 percent advanced
estimates and lower than the second quarter's 4.1 percent rise.
It also marked the third successive quarter of softer annual
While the city-state's economy grew strongly in 2018 and
continued to motor at a reasonable pace through the first half
of the year, stresses have started to emerge in recent months.
Singapore's central bank has warned that a heated trade war
between the United States and China - one of the city state's
major trade partner - could hurt the domestic economy.
Export growth to China has slowed for 5 months in a row,
raising worries about the outlook as the Sino-U.S. trade
tensions showed no signs of abating.
"We see more slowing throughout 2019," Steve Cochrane,
Moody's Chief Asia Pacific economist said, adding that the
softening reflects cooling global growth.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry had forecast full-year
growth of 2.5 to 3.5 percent in 2018. Manufacturing and exports
of electronics were one of Singapore's main drivers of growth
last year, which saw GDP grow at its fastest pace in three
But year-on-year exports of electronics has been contracting
this year while factory production unexpectedly declined in
"There's been a shift in the pattern of exports this year.
It used to be focused on electronics but now it has shifted to
the non-electronics sector like pharmaceuticals," Cochrane said.
(Reporting by Fathin Ungku
Editing by Shri Navaratnam)
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