(Repeats story that first ran on Wednesday)
* Most EU members are above debt-safety threshold
* Spotlight on big Spanish, Portuguese debt loads
* Low growth makes deleveraging harder; risk for banks
By Alan Wheatley, Global Economics Correspondent
LONDON, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Away from the markets' fixation
with the debts of Greece and other governments, concern is
growing at the painfully slow progress Europe is making in
tackling a much bigger mountain of corporate and household debt.
With austerity pointing to weak growth if not outright
recession, the risk is that the burden of servicing the debt can
only increase, causing a rise in bad loans. The spotlight then
would fall on the capacity of banks to take losses and whether
they might have to turn to their governments for help.
And overindebtedness is not confined to the periphery of the
bloc.
Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands all have private-sector
debt that far exceeds the safety threshold of 160 percent of GDP
set by the European Commission as part of a new exercise to
detect and correct risky macroeconomic imbalances.
In the case of the Netherlands, the main culprit is home
loans, which have risen more than 7 percent a year since 2000 as
borrowers have taken advantage of the tax deductibility of
mortgage interest, according to Dutch central bank governor
Klaas Knot.
"In my view the high stock of mortgage debt is among today's
biggest vulnerabilities of the Dutch economy," Knot, a member of
the European Central Bank's Governing Council, said in a recent
speech in London.
Up to a point, debt is not only good for growth, it is
vital. But it's possible to have too much of a good thing.
The Commission, the EU's executive body, said no fewer than
15 of the EU's 27 members exceeded its 160 percent safety
cutoff, led by Ireland on 341 percent.
A recent Bank for International Settlements working paper
concluded that when public debt rises to 95 percent of GDP from
85 percent, trend economic growth can be reduced by more than
one-tenth of a percentage point.
For corporate debt the pain threshold is closer to 90
percent and the economic hit is slighter, while for household
debt the BIS's best guess is that the inflection point is around
85 percent of GDP.
"A clear implication of these results is that the debt
problems facing advanced economies are even worse than we
thought," said the BIS authors, led by chief economist Stephen
Cecchetti.
PAIN IN SPAIN
What should be done?
"Current efforts focus on raising the cost of credit and
making funding less readily available to would-be borrowers.
Maybe we should go further, reducing both direct government
subsidies and the preferential treatment debt receives. In the
end, the only way out is to increase saving," the BIS paper
said.
Although private sector debt burdens are worryingly high in
a host of European countries, the markets' focus is
understandably on those countries that have either been bailed
out by the EU and the International Monetary Fund or are
struggling to sell their bonds at non-punitive rates.
Take Spain. Its public sector debt is still only 61 percent
of GDP, having doubled since the onset of the crisis, but it is
drowning in private sector debt equivalent to 227 percent of
GDP.
Spanish corporations hold twice as much debt relative to
national output as do U.S. companies, and six times as much as
German firms, according to the McKinsey Global Institute.
"Debt reduction in the corporate sector may weigh on growth
in the years to come," MGI said in a report.
Looking at the composition of Spain's debt, Jamie
Dannhauser, an economist with Lombard Street Research, a London
consultancy, said it was irrational to describe Spain as facing
a sovereign debt crisis brought on by fiscal profligacy.
Rather, investors are demanding high bond yields because
they are worried about the impact that recessionary policies
will have on Spanish corporations and, with a lag, on the
country's banks.
"Growth is the only way to make the private debt stock
sustainable, and the market quite reasonably judges that all of
the policies being forced on Spain will depress output in the
short term," he said.
COMING DOWN SLOWLY
Banks have set aside plump loan-loss provisions, but Spain's
private debt load was "grotesque", Dannhauser said.
"Markets are worried about the banks, and because the
government ultimately stands behind the banks, they then become
worried about the government," he said.
Recession in Spain would have a big impact on Portugal,
which is both deeper in debt and less competitive than its
bigger neighbour. According to the Commission, Portugal has
public-sector debt of 93 percent of GDP and private-sector debt
of a whopping 249 percent of GDP.
Making matters worse, Portugal's corporate debt to GDP is
still as high as it was at the peak of the financial crisis.
And, on Lombard Street Research's figures, the capacity of
business to service the debt is stretched: non-financial company
debt is 16 times pre-interest cash flow compared with 12 in
Spain.
"As such, Portugal's banking system is hugely exposed to the
deepening recession," Dannhauser said.
For the euro zone as a whole, the picture is a little
brighter as firms in most of the larger countries have started
to deleverage.
The ratio of debt to total assets has declined from a peak
in 2009, as has their debt service burden, according to a study
by Guntram Wolff and Eric Ruscher with Bruegel, a Brussels think
tank.
The corporate debt-to-GDP ratio has also dipped, to 79
percent from 81 percent in late 2009, but it was just 60 percent
as recently as 2000. As such, they said it was too early to
sound the all-clear.
"The still very high level of indebtedness of non-financial
corporations by historical standards points to remaining
vulnerabilities, in particular in scenarios of high costs of
debt financing," Wolff and Ruscher said in a report.
2012-02-23 08:30:00

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