Originally a veterinarian, Dr. Issy Bacher turned his attention to the stock markets back in 1982. After discovering “on balance volume” theory, he poured his energy into developing technical analysis software that could scan historical share data for trends, and predict cyclical highs and lows. Not long after, Cycle Trends was born, quickly becoming a popular tool of analysis for investors and traders alike. Market Views interviews the man behind the programme.
What first attracted you to the stock market?
I dabbled in the market as a vet, lost money and then found a book by Joseph Granville who had a theory about using volume as shown by the difference between supply and demand to make investment decisions. The name of the theory was "On Balance Volume". I found a computer student to put it into a programme. This was in 1982. I named the program "Olby"; the forecasting was very accurate and I advertised in the Sunday Times "Business Times". In no time I developed a following because of the accuracy of the gold signals. As a result I sold my veterinary hospitals and became a professional analyst.
How long have you been investing on the stock market?
Since 1982. I only became successful when I started to use cycles as a trading technique.
What is your investment philosophy?
To avoid reading the opinions of fundamental analysts in the press. They can only dwell on what is known and obvious. Cycle analysis takes away all the emotion from investment decisions and allows you to make decisions based on the cycles of the past without being influenced by the emotions of the present, such as fear and greed .
What inspired you to develop Cycle Trends?
My first program "Olby" was essentially a pure technical analysis programme, and technical analysis programmes do not work well in bear markets. I searched for a technique that would function both in bull and bear markets and found cycle analysis. Amazingly cycle analysis was first used by the Rothschild bankers in the 1800s. Cycle analysis, by filtering out the cycles that are correctly tracing the movements of the market in the past and then forecasting them into the future, is able to predict markets both in bear and bull phases.
Have you personally made any profitable investments using Cycle Trends?
Yes. I invest primarily in unit trusts and use cycles in my decision making. Despite the bear market I have turned R650,000 into R2,000,000.
Why is now a good time to buy share analysis software?
The bear market, if not over now, will turn positive during 2009. Major profits are made in the first months of a new bull market. Cycle Trends has already picked the first low of the bear market and the first peak of the upswing. Investors and traders will benefit from its ability to point out the peaks and lows of shares and markets.
Given the current financial crisis, how accurate or realistic are the predictions?
Cycle Trends is not a holy grail to investing and trading. In the past few months the signals have been 90% accurate. The skill of the investor plays a role in using the cycle techniques correctly as taught in the instruction CD. The average investor should get a minimum 70% result.
How broad are the input variables in Cycle Trends?
There are 3 basic cycle indicators that have to confirm each other for a decision to be made.
Any advice for prospective buyers?
They should have already taken the first steps into the market and should wait for great opportunities that will present in 2009. Always buy at cycle low points.
