Tuesday, 20 December 2011 - 20:00
Charts
Endgame John Mauldin recently wrote a book called “Endgame” which is about the end of the debt supercycle and how it changes everything. I found it to be a very interesting read.
One of his first arguments why Europe and most of the West are in such a bad place is due to simple formula that defines the growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
Change in GDP = Change in Population + Change in Productivity
In order to grow your economy you only have two ways to do it, there is no other clever way. You can’t borrow yourself out of the problem and you can’t let other nations work for you while you sit around doing nothing.
Change in Population
It is common knowledge that most of the nations in the West sit with an older population nearing retirement with few productive years left. Contrast this to India, China, and Africa with a massive younger population with many years still to produce products for their nation.
Below is a graph of China’s population pyramid. It is clear to see that the majority of the population is aged between 20 and 45. It is also clear to see how the one-child-policy is affecting the younger ages. This will definitely be a problem for China in years to come. A small young population has to work very hard to support a large old population. This is exactly what we currently have in the West with the “babyboom generation” now entering retirement age.
For further details refer to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_pyramid
Change in Productivity
Well, sorry to say but there is no replacement for hard work. We need to work smarter and harder in order to increase productivity. Every decade USA employees work 1 year more than South African employees (i.e. 10% more). This is purely a result of South Africa’s more generous public holiday numbers and average annual leave when compared to the USA.
Mr Mauldin looked at an interesting study by the Kauffman Foundation. The study looked at the type of firms in the private sector that create the most jobs. (It is also a well-known fact that governments are not there to create jobs but instead should only create the healthy environment for the private sector to flourish so that it, in turn, can create jobs.)
The Kauffman Foundation focused their study on the USA from 1992 to 2005. The study shows that by far the most jobs are created by start-ups. Yes it is true that 50% of start-ups don’t make it after 5 years but they are still the best job creators. The graph below shows that start-ups created, on average, 3 million new jobs in the USA in their first year. The older the firms are the fewer jobs they create. Therefore as the Kauffman Foundation says “… we don’t count on the Intels or Microsofts to create employment: we need entrepreneurs.” I feel like changing President Clinton’s slogan from “It is about the economy dummy” to “It is about the entrepreneur dummy”.
Source: Business Dynamic Statistics, Tim Kane
For further details refer to:
http://www.kauffman.org/uploadedFiles/firm_formation_importance_of_startups.pdf
May we go into 2012 with such a drive in South Africa to work harder and smarter and support to the start-ups of the new year.
This is Seed’s last newsletter for 2011. May you have a blessed Christmas with your family and loved ones. Travel safe and keep well, we’ll see you again in 2012.
Kind regards,
Vincent Heys
info@seedinvestments.co.za
www.seedinvestments.co.za
021 9144 966
Tue, 20 Dec 2011
Top News
South Africa's government bonds edged higher while the rand jumped as much as two percent against the dollar in thin year-end trade on Tuesday, tracking gains in the euro after a well-supported Spanish debt auction. Full story
Global miner Anglo American has exported the first shipment from the $1 billion Kolomela iron ore mine in South Africa, one of its key growth projects, putting the mine ahead of schedule and on track to achieve full production by 2013. Full story |
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Kim Jong-un, the third in a dynasty that has ruled North Korea since its foundation in 1948, paid homage to his dead father Tuesday as the isolated country appeared to cut itself off even more from the outside world. Full storyThe Republican-led U.S. House of Representatives will set the stage on Tuesday for a showdown with Senate Democrats over a payroll tax cut extension that is becoming a proxy for 2012 election year battles. Full storyIran has invited the U.N. nuclear watchdog to visit for talks and would be ready to discuss concerns about its disputed atomic ambitions, an Iranian envoy told Reuters Tuesday. Full story |
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Markets | Britain's top share index
hit a one-week closing high on Tuesday, after a drop in Spain's
borrowing costs and encouraging data from Germany. . . Full story | | U.S. stocks rebounded
sharply on Tuesday as investors latched onto signs of easing
stress in Europe's bond markets as well as some positive
economic. . . Full story | | Global stocks posted
their strongest gains in three weeks and the euro rose
on Tuesday on signs of improved economic prospects in
Germany. . . Full story | | European shares rose on
Tuesday in thin trade after a jump in U.S. housing starts, a
strong reading of the German Ifo index. . . Full story |
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| Gold prices rose to their
highest in nearly a week on Tuesday as the euro rallied 1
percent versus the dollar, with rising. . . Full story | | Profit taking by traders who
bet on equity market volatility, one of the few money-spinning
strategies this year, has sparked a plunge in. . . Full story | | | | European stocks edged up in
thin pre-holiday trade on Tuesday, boosted by a successful
Spanish debt auction and a sharp rise in German. . . Full story |
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SA Business | South African stocks ended a see-saw session a touch higher on Tuesday, with miners among the best performers as commodity prices cruised higher but the stronger rand currency restricted the upside momentum.. . . Full story | | South Africa's rand strengthened to a near-week high against the dollar on Tuesday, taking its cue mainly from a firmer euro in thin trading as the year draws to a close.. . . Full story |
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Company News | In September 2010, a circular was sent to shareholders relating to the equity and debt financing of Sephaku Holdings' Cement Project. . . Full story | | Anglo announced the successful commissioning of the third of its four major growth projects during 2011, delivering on the company's strategic. . . Full story | | Notice was given in terms of section 60(4) of the Companies Act, 71 of 2008, as amended ("the Act"), that shareholders. . . Full story | | Notice was given in terms of section 60(4) of the Companies Act, 71 of 2008, as amended ("the Act"), that shareholders. . . Full story |
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| In the notice of the annual general meeting, one of the resolutions to be adopted by shareholders is to re-elect Ms. . . Full story | | The company's Integrated Annual Report for the year ended 30 September 2011 was posted to shareholders on Tuesday 20 December 2011. . . Full story | | Further to the announcement issued on 19 December 2011 regarding the refocusing of Fiuranium's Ezulwini Mine, shareholders were advised that the. . . Full story | | Mvela Group shareholders were referred to the cautionary announcement related to the offer by Blackstar Group SE ("Blackstar") dated 21 October. . . Full story |
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Company Results | Revenue for the year ended August 2011 dropped to R27.9 million (R33.2 million) and gross profit fell to R21.3 million (R26.7 million). Loss before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation was recorded at R6.8 million (profit of R4.5). The net attributable loss was at R9.3 million (profit of R2 million). Headline loss per share was 2.31cps (headline earnings of 0.52cps).
Dividend
No dividend is proposed.
Prospects
Although the group has experienced some improvements the cond. . . Full story |
World Markets (Spot Prices)
Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | JSE Overall | 17:00 | 31783.90 | 62.53 | 0.20% | JSE Top 40 | 17:00 | 28330.77 | 68.94 | 0.24% | JSE Gold | 17:00 | 2936.18 | 20.21 | 0.69% | JSE Financial | 17:00 | 21881.01 | -78.49 | -0.36% | JSE Industrial | 17:00 | 33846.92 | 24.42 | 0.07% | JSE Indust 25 | 17:00 | 28387.88 | 23.03 | 0.08% | JSE Resource | 17:00 | 51668.07 | 361.84 | 0.71% | DJ Futures | 19:50 | 11975.00 | 272.00 | 2.32% | DJ Ind | 19:45 | 12059.99 | 293.73 | 2.50% | SP 500 | 20:00 | 1236.72 | 31.37 | 2.60% | Nasdaq | 20:00 | 2594.79 | 71.65 | 2.84% | FTSE 100 | 18:35 | 5419.60 | 54.61 | 1.02% | DAX | 18:46 | 5842.35 | 171.64 | 3.03% | CAC40 | 18:46 | 3051.68 | -27.04 | -0.88% | Nikkei | 08:26 | 8336.48 | -65.24 | -0.78% | Shanghai | 09:26 | 2215.93 | -2.30 | -0.10% | Hang-Seng | 10:26 | 18080.20 | 9.99 | 0.06% | All Ords | 07:39 | 4107.10 | -6.80 | -0.17% | NZSE 50 | 06:46 | 3202.02 | -21.02 | -0.65% |
| | Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | Gold | 19:59 | 1614.89 | 22.21 | 1.39% | Gold/Rand | 20:00 | 13253.56 | -147.74 | -1.10% | Gold/R kg | 20:00 | 426102 | -5228 | -1.21% | Silver | 19:59 | 29.4820 | .7500 | 2.61% | Platinum | 19:59 | 1425.25 | 21.50 | 1.53% | Palladium | 19:58 | 624.00 | 19.71 | 3.26% | R157 | 13:02 | 6.88 | -.02 | -0.29% | R204 | 13:02 | 7.81 | -.02 | -0.26% | Brent Crude | 19:56 | 107.38 | -1.30 | -1.20% | Rand / Dollar | 19:59 | 8.2071 | -0.1813 | -2.16% | Rand / Pound | 19:55 | 12.8246 | -0.1475 | -1.14% | Rand / Euro | 19:55 | 10.7417 | -0.1607 | -1.47% | Rand / NZD | 19:58 | 6.3239 | -0.0156 | -0.25% | Rand / AUD | 19:55 | 8.2728 | -0.0337 | -0.41% | Yen / Dollar | 19:59 | 77.7790 | -0.2440 | -0.31% | Euro / Dollar | 19:55 | 0.7638 | -0.0054 | -0.70% | Dollar / Euro | 19:59 | 1.3087 | 0.0091 | 0.70% | Pound / Dollar | 19:55 | 0.6381 | -0.0068 | -1.05% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today
Trading Statistics
Date | Adv. | Decl. | Unch. | Actives | Volume | Value | Trades | Orders |
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20/12/2011 | 176 | 146 | 74 | 396 | 227,046,661 | R10,155,927,000 | 89781 | 2216082 | 19/12/2011 | 128 | 214 | 73 | 415 | 310,949,150 | R18,127,790,145 | 106848 | 2526846 | 15/12/2011 | 199 | 167 | 73 | 439 | 481,847,032 | R24,581,198,012 | 179829 | 2550874 | 14/12/2011 | 125 | 243 | 75 | 443 | 333,579,127 | R17,440,703,951 | 102925 | 2497327 | 13/12/2011 | 148 | 204 | 90 | 442 | 269,686,587 | R11,471,588,351 | 94841 | 2489500 |
Index Summary Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Top 40 | 28,330.77 | 68.94 | 0.24% | Industrial | 33,846.92 | 24.42 | 0.07% | Mid Cap | 43,327.87 | -38.41 | -0.09% | Small Cap | 32,447.93 | 80.61 | 0.25% | Resource 20 | 51,668.07 | 361.84 | 0.71% | Industrial 25 | 28,387.88 | 23.03 | 0.08% | Financial 15 | 8,215.36 | -44.65 | -0.54% | Financial & Ind. 30 | 31,395.05 | -23.46 | -0.07% | All Share | 31,783.90 | 62.53 | 0.20% | Oil & Gas | 28,154.72 | -222.48 | -0.78% | Mining | 33,466.53 | 298.02 | 0.90% | Gold Mining | 2,936.18 | 20.21 | 0.69% | Platinum Mining | 60.59 | -.07 | -0.12% | GENERAL MINING | 8,190.08 | 93.45 | 1.15% | Oil & Gas Producers | 15,138.27 | -119.63 | -0.78% | Basic Materials | 28,293.63 | 232.70 | 0.83% | Chemicals | 13,778.18 | 111.47 | 0.82% | Forestry & Paper | 11,503.24 | 19.84 | 0.17% | Industrial Metals | 29,332.12 | -39.39 | -0.13% | Industrials | 27,990.29 | -2.24 | -0.01% | General Industrials | 79,029.48 | -10.48 | -0.01% | Consumer Goods | 28,901.31 | -60.41 | -0.21% | Automobiles & Parts | 4,404.37 | 56.61 | 1.30% | Household Goods | 148.67 | -2 | -1.18% | Health Care | 34,994.17 | -85.21 | -0.24% | Beverages | 95.89 | -.45 | -0.47% |
| | Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Food Producers | 54,497.86 | 184.06 | 0.34% | Personal Goods | 407.79 | 3.49 | 0.86% | Consumer Services | 57,133.28 | -230.61 | -0.40% | General Retailers | 47,594.16 | -428.88 | -0.89% | Travel & Leisure | 3,726.47 | 41.78 | 1.13% | Media | 77.41 | .22 | 0.29% | Support Services | 2,127.47 | -7.14 | -0.33% | Telecommunications | 67,398.12 | 1037.42 | 1.56% | Financials | 21,881.01 | -78.49 | -0.36% | Banks | 40,228.23 | -446.86 | -1.10% | Non-life Insurance | 34,191.22 | 555.30 | 1.65% | Life Insurance | 17,412.10 | 19.25 | 0.11% | General Financial | 2,073.43 | .87 | 0.04% | Technology | 25,376.85 | 70.99 | 0.28% | SHARIAH TOP40 | 3,038.50 | 22 | 0.74% | FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL | 3,106.86 | 21 | 0.69% | COAL MINING | 22,908.29 | 60 | 0.26% | FTSE JSE Fledgling | 4,709.32 | 15 | 0.33% | FTSE/JSE Alt X | 1,288.24 | 1 | 0.11% | SA LISTED PROPERTY | 387.58 | | 0.35% | CAPPED PROPERTY | 315.16 | | 0.32% | RESOURCE | 28,535.65 | 184 | 0.65% | DIVIDEND PLUS | 174.64 | 0 | 0.02% | FTSE/JSE RAFI 40 | 6,584.63 | 12 | 0.18% | Capped Top 40 | 14,910.12 | 29 | 0.19% | Capped All Share | 16,064.27 | 29 | 0.18% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes** Code | Company Name | Status | Updated | TSH | TSOGO SUN HOLDINGS LIMITE... | BUY | 16 Dec | GRT | GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES LI... | HOLD | 16 Dec | SOL | SASOL LIMITED | BUY | 16 Dec | ALT | ALLIED TECHNOLOGIES LIMIT... | HOLD | 16 Dec | TRU | TRUWORTHS INTERNATIONAL L... | HOLD | 16 Dec |
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Results Expected** Expected | Company Name | Fin. Date | 21 Dec 2011 | MARSHALL | September 2011 (Final) | 21 Dec 2011 | MARSHALL- | September 2011 (Final) | 22 Dec 2011 | JOHNDAN | September 2011 (Final) | 22 Dec 2011 | MAS | November 2011 (Q) | 23 Dec 2011 | KAIROS | August 2011 (Interim) |
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Recent Dividends** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | GRANPRADE | 11-12-13 | 12-01-06 | 12-01-16 | R 0.6000 | NAMPAK 6%P | 11-12-08 | 12-01-20 | 12-01-30 | R 0.0600 | NAMPAK 6.5 | 11-12-08 | 12-01-20 | 12-01-30 | R 0.0650 | CLOVERPREF | 11-12-07 | 11-12-21 | 12-01-03 | R 0.0586 | SALLIES-C | 11-12-07 | 11-12-21 | 12-01-03 | R 0.0252 |
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Ex Div** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | AF-OVR 6%PP | 11-11-28 | 11-12-15 | 11-12-27 | R 0.4900 | AFPREFINV | 11-12-01 | 11-12-15 | 11-12-27 | R 0.1851 | BIPINF | 11-11-29 | 11-12-15 | 11-12-29 | R 0.1102 | BIPSTOP40 | 11-11-29 | 11-12-15 | 11-12-29 | R 0.1062 | REX TRUE6% | 11-11-28 | 11-12-15 | 11-12-27 | R 0.0600 |
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Upcoming AGMs** Code | Company Name | Date | Status | MST | Mustek Ltd | 22/12/2011 | Confirmed |
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