Monday, 12 December 2011 - 20:00
Charts
Average Monthly Equity Market Gains Before we start today's report, Seed is in the process of looking for someone to fill an exciting new role as an Assistant to the Wealth Managers. For more information please visit our Facebook page and have a look at the job specification. Please share with any suitable family and friends.
Looking back over an extended period of time, it is interesting to note the gains made by the local equity market on a month by month basis. We have analysed the month by month returns from the local equity market since 1970 and charted these monthly averages. The returns include dividends received – i.e. they are the total return from an investment tracking the JSE All Share index.
Firstly, given the general upward trend of the market over the long term, it is natural to find an average gain per month, with June being the lowest average at just 0.3%.
However what stands out is the average gain in each December month since 1970, which at 4.1% is far ahead of the next best month July at 2.5%.
Average monthly gains on the JSE per month from 1970:
We do know that averages can conceal a lot of variation and so looking back at the last 11 December periods, we find that only 2 out of the 11 periods produced a negative total return.
The highest gain in this time period was 11% in December 2001 – a year when the market as a whole produced a total return of 28.9%.
Gains on the JSE each December:
So the question is what is likely to happen in December 2011? Well, despite the history of generally positive performance in December, we would not want to infer too much from this.
For the year to date to the end of November the local equity market is up just over 5%, and over the last 12 months it is up 11.7%. Given that these returns are below the average annual return since 1960 of 19.4%, there is a possibility of a good end to the year.
On the other hand we have the world focusing on the European Union summit, which starts on Thursday night. The market is looking for a unified and positive outcome, but there remain many differences between the member countries as to the ideal policy and model. Watching very closely is the rating agency Standard and Poor, which has put 15 of the 17 euro countries onto credit watch negative, with a possible debt downgrade following this weekend.
The stakes are high. The market has been pushing the politicians to come up with credible solutions to the current treaty, which clearly has structural problems.
Because of the high correlations of global markets, a positive outcome over this coming weekend, together with the rating agencies holding back on any downgrades has a high probability of a rally in global equity markets to the end of the year.
Kind regards,
Ian de Lange
info@seedinvestments.co.za
www.seedinvestments.co.za
021 9144 966
Mon, 12 Dec 2011
Top News
Zimbabwe's Mimosa mine, a joint venture between Impala Platinum and Aquarius, has given a 10 percent stake to locals, a government minister said on Monday, as it aims to meet a controversial law on local ownership. Full story
South African stocks slid 1.4 percent on Monday, as a sharp decline in precious metal prices hit miners such as Gold Fields and Impala Platinum. Full story |
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Prime Minister Adel Safar urged Syrians to vote in local elections on Monday to save the nation from "conspiracies against us" but activists struggling to oust President Bashar-al Assad rejected the ballot as irrelevant at a time of violent unrest. Full storyManuel Noriega, Panama's drug-running military dictator of the 1980s, was extradited back to the country on Sunday and taken straight to prison to serve a 20-year sentence for the murders of opponents during his rule. Full storyItaly began a week of strikes by the three biggest labour unions against Prime Minister Mario Monti's 33-billion-euro austerity package, which the government may soften slightly to meet some of their demands. Full story |
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Markets | Gold tumbled 3 percent
on Monday, headed for its largest one-day drop in nearly three
months, as a dollar surge amid doubts. . . Full story | | U.S. stocks fell about 2 percent
on Monday on lingering worries over a deal for
economic integration in Europe and after Intel. . . Full story | | Global stocks and
the euro slid on Monday as
investors took a dim view on whether last week's plan to enhance
fiscal discipline in. . . Full story | | Britain's FTSE 100 fell in
light volume on Monday, with investors selling riskier banking
and mining assets as analysts concluded the lack of. . . Full story |
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| European shares posted
their biggest fall in three weeks on Monday, as investors
worried the measures outlined at last week's EU summit to
strengthen. . . Full story | | European shares extended
falls on Monday in thin trade, as concerns persisted that the
measures outlined at last week's EU summit would be. . . Full story | | U.S. stocks opened lower
on Monday on lingering concerns about a deal over
economic integration in Europe and after Intel Corp cut
its. . . Full story | | European shares retreated
on Monday as enthusiasm faded over a European Union deal on
greater fiscal integration, with the market unconvinced that the
EU. . . Full story |
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SA Business | South Africa's rand tumbled 2 percent against the dollar on Monday and government bonds weakened on soured sentiment stemming from a European Union plan seen as insufficient to contain that region's debt crisis.. . . Full story | | Dubai's Aramex has completed the acquisition of South Africa logistics and transportation company Berco Express Ltd., for an undisclosed amount, the company said in a statement on Monday.. . . Full story |
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| Northam Platinum, one of South Africa's smaller platinum producers, said on Monday its only producing mine has been hit by several stoppages due to government safety inspections.. . . Full story | | | | South Africa's rand started weaker against the dollar on Monday and was seen under pressure as the market was disappointed by Friday's European Union summit, which did not offer a concrete. . . Full story |
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Company News | Aquarius announced that as part of the continuing negotiations between its indirect 50% subsidiary Mimosa Holdings (Pvt) Ltd ("Mimosa") and the. . . Full story | | The board of directors of Actowers ("board") informed shareholders that Mr Pieter Sarel Nicolaas Swart has resigned as the financial director. . . Full story | | Sanyati shareholders ("shareholders") are advised that a circular has been posted today setting out the relevant information relating to approval of. . . Full story | | This is a notice in terms of section 45(5) of the Act. On 20 July 2011, the shareholders of Grindrod approved. . . Full story |
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| Shareholders are advised that the annual report for the year ended 30 June 2011, was dispatched to shareholders today and contains. . . Full story | | Following the disclosure of the terms of the Clinker Group acquisition, shareholders are no longer required to exercise caution when dealing. . . Full story | | The directors of Afrimat announced that the company has entered into an agreement to acquire 100% of the issued ordinary share. . . Full story | | Mr Paul Mpho Makwana has been appointed as an independent non-executive director of Adcock with effect from 1 February 2012.. . . Full story |
World Markets (Spot Prices)
Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | JSE Overall | 17:00 | 32270.06 | -362.86 | -1.11% | JSE Top 40 | 17:00 | 28772.86 | -396.75 | -1.36% | JSE Gold | 17:00 | 3038.46 | -66.02 | -2.13% | JSE Financial | 17:00 | 21900.38 | -138.09 | -0.63% | JSE Industrial | 17:00 | 34303.97 | -226.79 | -0.66% | JSE Indust 25 | 17:00 | 28759.22 | -221.25 | -0.76% | JSE Resource | 17:00 | 52871.44 | -1011.13 | -1.88% | DJ Futures | 19:40 | 11880.00 | -263.00 | -2.17% | DJ Ind | 19:41 | 11969.70 | -214.56 | -1.76% | SP 500 | 19:56 | 1230.76 | -24.43 | -1.95% | Nasdaq | 19:56 | 2600.58 | -46.27 | -1.75% | FTSE 100 | 18:35 | 5427.86 | -101.35 | -1.83% | DAX | 19:20 | 5805.25 | -181.46 | -3.03% | CAC40 | 19:20 | 3101.12 | -71.23 | -2.25% | Nikkei | 08:26 | 8653.82 | 117.36 | 1.37% | Shanghai | 09:26 | 2291.54 | -23.73 | -1.02% | Hang-Seng | 10:26 | 18575.66 | -10.57 | -0.06% | All Ords | 07:36 | 4311.40 | 47.30 | 1.11% | NZSE 50 | 06:46 | 3299.51 | 28.05 | 0.86% |
| | Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | Gold | 19:59 | 1665.02 | -46.70 | -2.73% | Gold/Rand | 19:58 | 13748.94 | 13748.94 | 0.00% | Gold/R kg | 19:56 | 441837 | -2273 | -0.51% | Silver | 19:59 | 31.0250 | -1.1600 | -3.60% | Platinum | 19:58 | 1483.25 | -25.48 | -1.69% | Palladium | 19:59 | 659.75 | -21.18 | -3.11% | R157 | 17:06 | 6.85 | .08 | 1.18% | R204 | 17:06 | 7.78 | .08 | 1.04% | Brent Crude | 19:56 | 107.47 | -.13 | -0.12% | Rand / Dollar | 19:59 | 8.2606 | 0.1592 | 1.97% | Rand / Pound | 19:55 | 12.8560 | 0.2090 | 1.65% | Rand / Euro | 19:55 | 10.9076 | 0.0836 | 0.77% | Rand / NZD | 19:58 | 6.3024 | 0.0339 | 0.54% | Rand / AUD | 19:55 | 8.3260 | 0.0623 | 0.75% | Yen / Dollar | 19:59 | 77.8500 | 0.2320 | 0.30% | Euro / Dollar | 19:55 | 0.7571 | 0.0089 | 1.19% | Dollar / Euro | 19:59 | 1.3202 | -0.0160 | -1.20% | Pound / Dollar | 19:55 | 0.6408 | 0.0018 | 0.28% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today
Trading Statistics
Date | Adv. | Decl. | Unch. | Actives | Volume | Value | Trades | Orders |
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12/12/2011 | 146 | 215 | 71 | 432 | 532,826,958 | R17,803,201,001 | 99072 | 2633521 | 09/12/2011 | 134 | 200 | 88 | 422 | 249,399,318 | R11,587,964,657 | 95943 | 2463236 | 08/12/2011 | 189 | 163 | 77 | 429 | 384,890,592 | R12,963,874,027 | 95683 | 2538075 | 07/12/2011 | 214 | 153 | 74 | 441 | 234,639,184 | R11,598,279,683 | 102357 | 2247995 | 06/12/2011 | 137 | 200 | 84 | 421 | 283,345,136 | R12,462,588,079 | 91880 | 2310652 |
Index Summary Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Top 40 | 28,772.86 | -396.75 | -1.36% | Industrial | 34,303.97 | -226.79 | -0.66% | Mid Cap | 43,916.01 | 85.66 | 0.20% | Small Cap | 32,923.72 | 2.64 | 0.01% | Resource 20 | 52,871.44 | -1011.13 | -1.88% | Industrial 25 | 28,759.22 | -221.25 | -0.76% | Financial 15 | 8,213.23 | -72.60 | -0.88% | Financial & Ind. 30 | 31,672.62 | -274.54 | -0.86% | All Share | 32,270.06 | -362.86 | -1.11% | Oil & Gas | 29,589.81 | -165.75 | -0.56% | Mining | 34,161.51 | -737.07 | -2.11% | Gold Mining | 3,038.46 | -66.02 | -2.13% | Platinum Mining | 61.50 | -2.36 | -3.70% | GENERAL MINING | 8,333.31 | -155.40 | -1.83% | Oil & Gas Producers | 15,909.89 | -89.12 | -0.56% | Basic Materials | 28,840.18 | -587.94 | -2.00% | Chemicals | 13,759.11 | -21.79 | -0.16% | Forestry & Paper | 11,842.40 | -182.76 | -1.52% | Industrial Metals | 29,071.45 | -131.11 | -0.45% | Industrials | 28,419.74 | -109.37 | -0.38% | General Industrials | 80,098.96 | -279.70 | -0.35% | Consumer Goods | 29,336.51 | -97.20 | -0.33% | Automobiles & Parts | 4,300.21 | -2.26 | -0.05% | Household Goods | 157.74 | -1 | -0.91% | Health Care | 35,659.77 | 126.17 | 0.36% | Beverages | 95.52 | .85 | 0.90% |
| | Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Food Producers | 53,759.60 | -990.01 | -1.81% | Personal Goods | 425.07 | -6.60 | -1.53% | Consumer Services | 57,091.93 | -338.82 | -0.59% | General Retailers | 48,791.30 | -557.66 | -1.13% | Travel & Leisure | 3,706.90 | 16.86 | 0.46% | Media | 73.97 | -.53 | -0.71% | Support Services | 2,172.55 | 67.41 | 3.20% | Telecommunications | 69,338.30 | -1349.39 | -1.91% | Financials | 21,900.38 | -138.09 | -0.63% | Banks | 40,930.46 | -527.69 | -1.27% | Non-life Insurance | 33,948.73 | 121.25 | 0.36% | Life Insurance | 16,622.63 | 1.02 | 0.01% | General Financial | 2,126.14 | -35.42 | -1.64% | Technology | 25,469.23 | 2.02 | 0.01% | SHARIAH TOP40 | 3,118.90 | -56 | -1.78% | FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL | 3,183.71 | -52 | -1.61% | COAL MINING | 23,602.44 | -479 | -1.99% | FTSE JSE Fledgling | 4,709.18 | -8 | -0.16% | FTSE/JSE Alt X | 1,217.64 | -31 | -2.50% | SA LISTED PROPERTY | 385.78 | | 0.30% | CAPPED PROPERTY | 315.89 | | 0.00% | RESOURCE | 29,253.42 | -562 | -1.88% | DIVIDEND PLUS | 177.29 | -1 | -0.38% | FTSE/JSE RAFI 40 | 6,660.64 | -86 | -1.27% | Capped Top 40 | 15,138.63 | -204 | -1.33% | Capped All Share | 16,307.62 | -182 | -1.10% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes** Code | Company Name | Status | Updated | APN | ASPEN PHARMACARE HLDGS | BUY | 08 Dec | TSH | TSOGO SUN HOLDINGS LIMITE... | BUY | 08 Dec | GRT | GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES LI... | HOLD | 08 Dec | SOL | SASOL LIMITED | BUY | 08 Dec | ALT | ALLIED TECHNOLOGIES LIMIT... | HOLD | 08 Dec |
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Results Expected** Expected | Company Name | Fin. Date | 15 Dec 2011 | RACEC | September 2011 (Final) | 15 Dec 2011 | TELEMASTR | September 2011 (Final) | 21 Dec 2011 | MARSHALL | September 2011 (Final) | 21 Dec 2011 | MARSHALL- | September 2011 (Final) | 22 Dec 2011 | JOHNDAN | September 2011 (Final) |
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Recent Dividends** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | NAMPAK 6.5 | 11-12-08 | 12-01-20 | 12-01-30 | R 0.0650 | NAMPAK 6%P | 11-12-08 | 12-01-20 | 12-01-30 | R 0.0600 | CLOVERPREF | 11-12-07 | 11-12-22 | 12-01-03 | R 0.0586 | SALLIES-C | 11-12-07 | 11-12-22 | 12-01-03 | R 0.0252 | LIBHOLD11 | 11-12-05 | 11-12-22 | 12-01-03 | R 0.0550 |
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Ex Div** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | ABIL PREF | 11-11-21 | 11-12-08 | 11-12-19 | R 3.1000 | ABIL | 11-11-21 | 11-12-08 | 11-12-19 | R 1.0000 | MRPRICE | 11-11-15 | 11-12-08 | 11-12-19 | R 0.9360 | FAMBRANDS | 11-10-20 | 11-12-08 | 11-12-19 | R 0.8000 | VUKILE | 11-11-21 | 11-12-08 | 11-12-19 | R 0.5431 |
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Upcoming AGMs** Code | Company Name | Date | Status | RAR | Rare Holdings Ltd | 13/12/2011 | Confirmed | RARP | Rare Holdings Ltd | 13/12/2011 | Confirmed | UBU | Ububele Holdings Ltd | 14/12/2011 | Confirmed | DNPP | Distribution and Warehousing Network Ltd | 15/12/2011 | Confirmed | ACT | AfroCentric Investment Corporation Ltd | 15/12/2011 | Unconfirmed |
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